Infectious Disease Alarms and Global Warming

Infectious Disease Alarms and Global Warming

May 2007 -   Earth's rising temperature 
means trouble for health experts trying to fight infectious diseases, 
microbiologists said at a scientific meeting this week. "One of the first 
indicators of rising global temperatures could be malaria climbing 
mountains," said Dr. Stephen Morse of Columbia University. 
Speaking Tuesday at the the American Society for Microbiology, ASM, 
meeting in Toronto, Morse said in mountain areas where malaria is endemic, 
the disease is not transmitted above a certain altitude because 
temperatures are too cold to support the mosquitoes that carry the 
disease. As temperatures rise, this malaria line will rise as well, said 
Morse. 

Dr. Stephen Morse is associate professor of epidemiology as well as 
founding director and senior resident scientist at Columbia University's 
Center for Public Health Preparedness. 
"Environmental changes have always been associated with the appearance of 
new diseases or the arrival of old diseases in new places. With more 
changes, we can expect more surprises," said Morse. 
In its April report on the impacts of climate change, the UN's 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that rising temperatures 
may result in "the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease 
vectors," and will have "mixed effects, such as the decrease or increase 
of the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa." 
"Diseases carried by insects and ticks are likely to be affected by 
environmental changes because these creatures are themselves very 
sensitive to vegetation type, temperature, humidity etc, said David Rogers 
of Oxford University, also speaking at the ASM meeting. 
Through the microscope: an image of malaria in blood 
But he said that whether specific diseases will increase or decrease is 
much more difficult to predict, because disease transmission involves a 
great many factors. 
The scientists say a combination of historical disease records and modern 
satellite data, plus good predictive models is needed to describe the 
past, explain the present and predict the future of infectious diseases. 
Another change could be lengthening of the flu season, the scientists 
said. Influenza is a year-round event in the tropics. If the tropical 
airmass around the Earth's equator expands, as new areas lose their 
seasons they may also begin to see influenza year-round. 
Extreme weather events will also lead to more disease, unless we are 
prepared. As the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather 
events change, water supplies become more at risk, said Dr. Joan Rose a 
water expert in Michigan State University's Water Quality and 
Environmental Microbiology Laboratory. 
"Hurricanes, typhoons, tornados and just high intensity storms have 
exacerbated an aging drinking and wastewater infrastructure, enhanced the 
mixing of untreated sewage and water supplies, re-suspended pathogens from 
sediments and displaced large populations to temporary shelters," said 
Rose. 

Dr. Joan Rose 
Rose is co-director of the newly established Center for Advancing 
Microbial Risk Assessment – a consortium of scientists from seven 
universities with expertise in quantitative microbial risk assessment 
methods, biosecurity and infectious disease transmission through 
environmental exposure. The Center is funded by the U.S. Environmental 
Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 
"We are at greater risk than ever before of infectious disease associated 
with increasing extreme weather events," she said. 
Indirect effects of climate change on infectious disease will also appear, 
said Morse, who warned that the effect of global warming on agriculture 
could lead to changes in disease transmission and distribution. 
"If agriculture in a particular area begins to fail due to drought, more 
people will move into cities," said Morse. There, high urban population 
densities, especially in developing countries, are associated with an 
increased transmission of a variety of diseases including HIV, 
tuberculosis, respiratory diseases such as influenza, and sexually 
transmitted diseases. 
"I'm worried about climate change and agree that something needs to be 
done," said Morse. "Otherwise, we can hope our luck will hold out." 
Animal diseases are also likely to reflect global warming patterns, 
according to Dr. Bernard Vallat, director general of the World 
Organization for Animal Health, OIE, based in Paris. 

Veterinarian Dr. Bernard Vallat was elected OIE director general in May 
2000 and re-elected in 2005. 
"As a result of globalization and climate change we are currently facing 
an unprecedented worldwide impact of emerging and re-emerging animal 
diseases and zoonoses - animal diseases transmissible to humans," Vallat 
said in a March editorial on the OIE website. 
"Improving the governance of animal health systems in both the public and 
private sector is the most effective response to this alarming situation," 
he said. 
The OIE World Animal Health and Welfare Fund was created in May 2004 to 
provide a means of responding urgently to these new challenges and to help 
the 168 OIE member governments strengthen their capacities to control 
animal diseases. 
The main donors to date are the World Bank, the United States, 
Switzerland, Japan, France, Canada, and Australia. Vallat says 
negotiations are underway with other potential donors.    

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