UN Climate Change Report says Poor Will Suffer

UN Climate Change Report says Poor Will Suffer

   
April 2007 - The impacts of future 
climate change will be mixed across regions of the world, with 
more than a billion people at risk of increased water stress 
and hundreds of millions at risk of sea-level rise, but there 
will be higher crop yields in some areas, finds a new global 
scientific assessment released today. 
Yet the report finds it "very likely" that all regions will 
experience either declines in net benefits or increases in net 
costs for temperature rises greater than about 2 to 3 degrees 
C (3.6 to 5.4 degrees F.) 
More than 2,500 scientific expert reviewers from around the 
world spent six years working on the assessment issued today 
by Working Group II of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate 
Change, IPCC. The report, "Impacts, Adaptation and 
Vulnerability," was adopted this week in a line-by-line review 
by the governments of 131 countries. 
"It is the poorest of the poor in the world, and this includes 
poor people even in prosperous societies, who are going to be 
the worst hit," IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri told 
journalists at the release of the report's summary for 
policymakers in Brussels. "This does become a global 
responsibility in my view," he said. 
Dr. Rajendra Pachauri of India chairs the Intergovermental 
Panel on Climate Change. 
The assessment details current scientific understanding of the 
impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human 
systems, the capacity of these systems to adapt and their 
vulnerability. 
The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded 
this century by an unprecedented combination of climate 
change; associated disturbances such as flooding, drought, 
wildfire, insects, and ocean acidification; and other global 
change drivers such as land use change, pollution, and 
over-exploitation of resources, the report finds. 
About 20 to 30 percent of plant and animal species assessed so 
far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if 
increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 
degrees C (2.7 to 4.5 degrees F), the report finds. 
The mountainous areas of Europe will face much greater species 
losses, "in some areas up to 60 percent under high emission 
scenarios by 2080." 
The report builds on past IPCC assessments including, the 
Working Group I report released in February that confirmed 
with 100 percent confidence that global warming is occurring 
and with 90 percent confidence that it is due to human 
activities. 
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological 
Organization and the UN Environment Programme and is open to 
all their member countries. 
The IPCC does not conduct research on its own but reviews and 
assesses the most recent scientific, technical and 
socio-economic information on climate change. The statements 
presented in this assessment are based on data sets that cover 
the period since 1970. 
"For the first time, we are no longer arm-waving with models - 
this is empirical data, we can actually measure it," Martin 
Parry, co-chairman of IPCC Working Group II, told reporters in 
Brussels today. 
Martin Parry of the UK is co-chair of the IPCC Working Group 
that produced the report issued today. He is director of the 
Jackson Environment Institute and professor of environmental 
science at the University of East Anglia. 
Improved climate models and expanded observations, data and 
information have enabled the IPCC to increase the level of 
confidence in the attribution of warming to human-induced 
increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, the report says, 
but it is also frank about limitations and gaps in 
information. 
"Limitations and gaps prevent more complete attribution of the 
causes of observed system responses to anthropogenic warming," 
the report acknowledges, listing three factors. 
First, the available analyses are limited in the number of 
systems and locations considered. Second, natural temperature 
variability is larger at the regional than the global scale, 
which affects identification of changes due to external 
forcing. Third, at the regional scale other factors, such as 
land-use change, pollution, and invasive species, are 
influential. 
That said, the assessment indicates that catastrophic effects 
of the warming climate are already in train. 
By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in Africa are 
projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to 
climate change, the report predicts. 
By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water 
availability are projected to increase by 10-40 percent at 
high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 
10-30 percent over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in 
the dry tropics, some of which are presently water stressed 
areas. 
Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy 
precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in 
frequency, will augment flood risk. 
Over the course of the century, water supplies stored in 
glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing 
water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major 
mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world 
population currently lives. 
An early end to the short rain in 2005 left many farmers in 
the southern Ethiopia without hope of a harvest and led to an 
increase in malnutrition among children. 
If temperatures rise more than 2.5 degrees C, the report 
forsees major changes in ecosystem structure and function, 
species' ecological interactions, and species' geographic 
ranges, with "predominantly negative consequences" for 
biodiversity, and water and food supply. 
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to 
high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1 
to 3 degrees C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond 
that in some regions. 
At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical 
regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even 
small local temperature increases, which would increase risk 
of hunger. 
Globally, the potential for food production is projected to 
increase with increases in local average temperature over a 
range of 1 to 3 degrees C, but above this it is projected to 
decrease. 
Globally, commercial timber productivity rises modestly with 
climate change in the short- to medium-term, with large 
regional variability despite the global trend. 
Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, 
including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea-level 
rise and the effect will be worsened by increasing human 
pressures on coastal areas. 
By the 2080s, many millions more people are projected to be 
flooded every year due to sea-level rise, the report predicts. 
The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of 
Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable.
Holding a vessel for potable water, women swim through 
contaminated flood water in the low-lying Asian country of 
Bangladesh. 
The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are 
those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies 
are linked with climate-senvironment newsitive resources, and those in 
areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid 
urbanization is occurring. 
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase 
flooding and avalanches and affect water resources within the 
next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased 
river flows as the glaciers recede. 
Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast 
Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to 
decrease due to climate change which, along with population 
growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of 
living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by 
the 2050s. 
Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to 
affect the health status of millions of people through 
increases in malnutrition, heat waves, floods, storms, fires 
and droughts; the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory 
diseases due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone 
related to climate change; and, the migration of some 
infectious diseases. 
"Climate change is having impacts on natural systems - plants, 
animals, ecosystems and human systems," Sharon Hays, leader of 
the U.S. IPCC delegation, said in a news conference call from 
Brussels. "Climate change is clearly a global challenge and we 
all recognize that it requires global solutions. Not all 
regions of the world have the same capacity to adapt." 
In Congress, House Science and Technology Committee Chairman 
Bart Gordon, a Tennessee Democrat, called the assessment, "a 
powerful and sobering message." 
"For the first time, the world's top scientists are able to 
confidently attribute changes in a wide variety of ecosystems 
in all parts of the world to human-induced global warming," 
Gordon said. "We can neutralize some of these by better 
adapting our society to these changes. We should identify our 
vulnerable communities and begin working to reduce these 
vulnerabilities." 
UK Environment and Climate Change Minister Ian Pearson said, 
"This report provides further evidence of why all countries 
need to work urgently to agree a global deal to combat climate 
change. People are already being affected, and if we don't act 
now millions more will suffer." 
"Reducing emissions is not enough," Pearson said, "In the UK, 
for example, buildings and transport will have to be better 
able to cope with the higher temperatures and more extreme 
weather that climate change will bring." 
"The report clearly shows that climate change will affect 
everyone on an individual level," said Pearson. "It's not just 
a problem for governments or big companies." He said the Blair 
government "will be increasing our engagement with people 
throughout the UK including an online CO2 calculator, a major 
press and TV ad campaign, and a Citizenvironment news Summit that will 
engage directly with the public on this important issue." 
Internationally, said Pearson, the UK has convened a debate 
this month in the UN Security Council "to try to help build a 
shared understanding of the implications climate change has 
for stability and security." 
EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said the report 
confirms the correctness of the EU's environmental policy. In 
March, the 27 member states pledged the reduction of carbon 
dioxide emissions by 20 percent before 2020. 
The report produced a storm of warnings from environmental 
groups - all calling for immediate action while there still is 
time to avert some of the most disastrous consequences of 
global warming. 
"There's no escaping the facts: global warming will bring 
hunger, floods and water shortages," said Hans Verolme of the 
global conservation organization WWF. "Poor countries that 
bear least responsibility will suffer most - and they have no 
money to respond - but people should also be aware that even 
the richer countries risk enormous damage." 
"Doing nothing is not an option," Verolme said. "On the 
contrary it will have disastrous consequences." 
"The irritating thing is that we have all the tools at hand to 
limit climate change and save the world from the worst 
impacts," says Dr. Lara Hansen, chief scientist of WWF's 
Global Climate Change Programme. "The IPCC makes it clear that 
there is a window of opportunity but that it's closing fast. 
The world needs to use its collective brains to think ahead 
for the next 10 years and work together to prevent this 
crisis." 
Friends of the Earth International's Climate Campaigner, 
Catherine Pearce, said, "It is now clear that we are to blame 
for the last 50 years of warming, and this is already causing 
adverse changes to our planet. Unless we take action to reduce 
emissions now, far worse is yet to come, condemning millions 
in the poorest parts of the world to loss of lives, 
livelihoods and homes. 
"Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue," 
said Pearce. "It is a looming humanitarian catastrophe, 
threatening ultimately our global security and survival." 

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